0 saved
12.1K views
Just in case you were becoming too accustomed to the anxiety of living in a complex world, use this model to appreciate it's real volatility.&n ...
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Itaque a sapientia praecipitur se ipsam, si usus sit, sapiens ut relinquat. An est aliquid per se ipsum flagitiosum, etiamsi nulla comitetur infamia? Tertium autem omnibus aut maximis rebus iis, quae secundum naturam sint, fruentem vivere. Dicet pro me ipsa virtus nec dubitabit isti vestro beato M. Qui autem de summo bono dissentit de tota philosophiae ratione dissentit. Duo Reges: constructio interrete. Ita enim vivunt quidam, ut eorum vita refellatur oratio. Qui ita affectus, beatum esse numquam probabis;
Cum salvum esse flentes sui respondissent, rogavit essentne fusi hostes. Hoc ipsum elegantius poni meliusque potuit. Hic ambiguo ludimur. Universa enim illorum ratione cum tota vestra confligendum puto. Itaque ad tempus ad Pisonem omnes. Itaque vides, quo modo loquantur, nova verba fingunt, deserunt usitata. Ne amores quidem sanctos a sapiente alienos esse arbitrantur. Te enim iudicem aequum puto, modo quae dicat ille bene noris.
Prodest, inquit, mihi eo esse animo. Tantum dico, magis fuisse vestrum agere Epicuri diem natalem, quam illius testamento cavere ut ageretur. Idemne potest esse dies saepius, qui semel fuit? Quis, quaeso, illum negat et bonum virum et comem et humanum fuisse?
- Embrace unpredictability and ambiguity
The butterfly effect is another reminder that, even within system ...
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Numquam facies. Nunc omni virtuti vitium contrario nomine opponitur. Respondent extrema primis, media utrisque, omnia omnibus.
Quae cum ita sint, effectum est nihil esse malum, quod turpe non sit. Sed plane dicit quod intellegit. Animi enim quoque dolores percipiet omnibus partibus maiores quam corporis. Duo Reges: constructio interrete. In qua si nihil est praeter rationem, sit in una virtute finis bonorum; Nam memini etiam quae nolo, oblivisci non possum quae volo. Semper enim ex eo, quod maximas partes continet latissimeque funditur, tota res appellatur. Illa videamus, quae a te de amicitia dicta sunt.
Non est ista, inquam, Piso, magna dissensio. Fortemne possumus dicere eundem illum Torquatum? Sin aliud quid voles, postea. Causa autem fuit huc veniendi ut quosdam hinc libros promerem. Naturales divitias dixit parabiles esse, quod parvo esset natura contenta.
The Butterfly Effect tends to be misunderstood in popular culture. The idea of a butterfly flapping its wings and causing a typhoon is fascinating but has been interpreted as a linear explanation behind major events, rather than the intended emphasis towards complex and unpredictable patterns.
It should also not be interpreted as arguing that minor changes always have major impacts. Sometimes a butterfly will flap its wings and there will be no perceivable impact on a complex system. Sensitivity is in itself unpredictable.
Thus, one criticism of the Butterfly Effect might be the ‘so what?’ If we embrace the unpredictability that it argues, what can we do with that, how do we plan, how do we trust any other model, theory or prediction? However, a more balanced view would see it as a grounding warning.
A Butterfly Effect at Twitter
Twitter founder and CEO Jack Dorsey has discussed the impact of early decisions on Twitter. In a podcast interview, Dorsey explained he would have hired “a game theorist to just really understand the ramifications of tiny decisions that we make, such as what happens with retweet versus retweet with comment and what happens when you put a count next to a like button?”
He attributes that early decision and it’s implicit rewarding of liked and shared content over other metrics such as diversity, accuracy or relevance, with the ‘clickbait’ and sensationalist culture found in some parts of Twitter.
His plan for the future embraces this unpredictability — advocating a considered and iterative approach that embraces the scientific method to continually improve the product and experience.
The butterfly effect points to uncertainty and unpredictable complex systems.
Use the following examples of connected and complementary models to weave butterfly effect and chaos theory into your broader latticework of mental models. Alternatively, discover your own connections by exploring the category list above.
Connected models:
- The ripple effect, avalanche effect and domino effect: all similar mental models pointing to the exponential impact of small factors, though they don’t emphasise the unpredictable and nonlinear nature of chaos in the same way.
- The map is not the territory: another reminder that our simplified understanding of reality are in fact not reality.
- Black swan events: linked to major events taking us by surprise and how we react and want to explain them afterwards.
- Catalyst: similar mental model with a minor element promoting change at a large scale.
- Compounding: speaks to the exponential impact of a small starting point.
Complementary models:
- Diversification: in an unpredictable world best be prepared for, well, unpredictability.
- Leverage: not to be mistaken with the butterfly effect, leverage works with more controlled and predictable elements to create an amplified impact.
- 4Ps of marketing: aim to apply small improvements to these factors to test long term impact.
- Scientific method: use this method to continually test and update understanding in a complex world.
- Occam’s razor: sometimes it wasn’t the butterfly flapping, sometimes it was just a more direct and obvious causal relationship.
The Butterfly Effect concept was coined by American mathematician and meteorologist Edward Lorenz who imagined the metaphor of a tornado being determined by perturbations as minor as the flapping of the wings of a butterfly weeks earlier.
The idea of small actions having large effects had been described before by many mathematicians and philosophers, with the most famous probably being that of Johann Gottlieb Fichte who said in his 1800 work The Vocation of Man that "you could not remove a single grain of sand from its place without thereby ... changing something throughout all parts of the immeasurable whole".
My Notes
Oops, That’s Members’ Only!
Fortunately, it only costs US$5/month to Join ModelThinkers and access everything so that you can rapidly discover, learn, and apply the world’s most powerful ideas.
ModelThinkers membership at a glance:
“Yeah, we hate pop ups too. But we wanted to let you know that, with ModelThinkers, we’re making it easier for you to adapt, innovate and create value. We hope you’ll join us and the growing community of ModelThinkers today.”
You Might Also Like:
- Actionable summaries of the world's most powerful ideas.
Subscribe now and download this practical guide to transform your thinking, plus recieve one short, powerful and actionable idea in your inbox each month.