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Imagine playing a game of chess where your opponent places their queen directly in the kill zone of your pawn. You'd take it, right? If so, tha ...
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Expressa vero in iis aetatibus, quae iam confirmatae sunt. Hoc loco tenere se Triarius non potuit. Quid de Platone aut de Democrito loquar? Nummus in Croesi divitiis obscuratur, pars est tamen divitiarum. Minime vero, inquit ille, consentit. Duo Reges: constructio interrete. Hanc ergo intuens debet institutum illud quasi signum absolvere. Quid igitur, inquit, eos responsuros putas? Nisi enim id faceret, cur Plato Aegyptum peragravit, ut a sacerdotibus barbaris numeros et caelestia acciperet? Vestri haec verecundius, illi fortasse constantius.
Hoc Hieronymus summum bonum esse dixit. Quae sunt igitur communia vobis cum antiquis, iis sic utamur quasi concessis; Hoc etsi multimodis reprehendi potest, tamen accipio, quod dant. Hic nihil fuit, quod quaereremus. Multa sunt dicta ab antiquis de contemnendis ac despiciendis rebus humanis; Pauca mutat vel plura sane; At ille pellit, qui permulcet sensum voluptate. Non potes, nisi retexueris illa.
Duo enim genera quae erant, fecit tria. Nec tamen ullo modo summum pecudis bonum et hominis idem mihi videri potest. Multa sunt dicta ab antiquis de contemnendis ac despiciendis rebus humanis; Qui igitur convenit ab alia voluptate dicere naturam proficisci, in alia summum bonum ponere? Ut proverbia non nulla veriora sint quam vestra dogmata. Quo modo? Scio enim esse quosdam, qui quavis lingua philosophari possint; Quae diligentissime contra Aristonem dicuntur a Chryippo.
- Stop and ask ‘and what would happen next?’
Rather than commit to an initial appealing decisi ...
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Neque solum ea communia, verum etiam paria esse dixerunt. Illis videtur, qui illud non dubitant bonum dicere -; Innumerabilia dici possunt in hanc sententiam, sed non necesse est. Satis est ad hoc responsum. Ego vero volo in virtute vim esse quam maximam; Duo enim genera quae erant, fecit tria. Simul atque natum animal est, gaudet voluptate et eam appetit ut bonum, aspernatur dolorem ut malum. Nam aliquando posse recte fieri dicunt nulla expectata nec quaesita voluptate. -delector enim, quamquam te non possum, ut ais, corrumpere, delector, inquam, et familia vestra et nomine. Sed ille, ut dixi, vitiose.
Utrum igitur tibi litteram videor an totas paginas commovere? A quibus propter discendi cupiditatem videmus ultimas terras esse peragratas. Erat enim res aperta. Multa sunt dicta ab antiquis de contemnendis ac despiciendis rebus humanis; Cum audissem Antiochum, Brute, ut solebam, cum M. Polemoni et iam ante Aristoteli ea prima visa sunt, quae paulo ante dixi. Qualis ista philosophia est, quae non interitum afferat pravitatis, sed sit contenta mediocritate vitiorum? Nunc ita separantur, ut disiuncta sint, quo nihil potest esse perversius.
Second-Order Thinking is effortful and can ultimately be wildly unreliable. Each step away from the initial direct causal relationship — between a decision and the immediate implication — creates new factors to consider, other players and agents, and general complexity. It is difficult to predict or consider all of these factors in any meaningful way.
Automation and the fourth industrial revolution.
One of the contradictions of capitalism that is still being played out in real time around us, is the impact of automation. There is still some debate about the impact of automation on jobs. While there is general agreement that we are losing many jobs, it’s unclear how many new jobs are being created through a ‘robot driven economy’.
A first order thinking approach to automation would say ‘we can save on labour costs and be more efficient by automating’. The second order and beyond thinking might raise questions about less people in the workforce and the implications on reducing consumer power — thus costing those businesses.
Again, this is still being played out with some debate about actual implications (second order thinking is often harder to predict), but has led to growing calls for things such as a universal basic income.
Asimov and the Foundation series.
I couldn’t resist putting this geeky reference in here. Science fiction writer Asimov coined the concept of psychohistory in the Foundation series. This is the (fictional) combination of history, sociology and maths to make predictions about large groups of people. The idea was that it was hard to predict the behaviour of individuals, but the behaviour of groups of people and civilisations was highly predictable through what could be seen as a type of second order thinking.
Chess.
Chess and other strategy games capture this well. It’s often tempting to take a piece in chess, when in reality it is a play by your opponent to draw you into a trap. The immediate gain of taking a piece leads to long term consequences of weakening your position and leading you to lose the game.
Second-Order Thinking is a simple and powerful mental model to prevent reactive decisions and consider long term implications.
Use the following examples of connected and complementary models to weave Second-Order Thinking into your broader latticework of mental models. Alternatively, discover your own connections by exploring the category list above.
Connected models:
- Fast and slow thinking: first-order thinking sits within fast thinking.
- The domino effect: using second order thinking to gain momentum.
- Opportunity cost: considering the cost of the next best option.
- Compounding: how an initial decision can have a compounded effect.
- Butterfly effect: how small decisions can make large impacts over time.
- 5 whys and fishbone diagram: to dig deeper beyond initial causes.
Complementary models:
- Feedback loops: generating regular feedback points to inform the accuracy of second order thinking.
- Agile methodology: providing an iterative process to test and learn from.
- Probability thinking: to consider the likelihood of various potential outcomes.
- High velocity decisions: particularly considering whether something is reversible.
- First principles and ockham's razor: to cut down the assumptions built up over second order thinking.
- 5 whys: to consider a retrospective view of cause in contrast to the future-focused nature of second order thinking.
The Second-Order Thinking mental model has been developed by Howard Marks, the co-chairman of Oaktree investments, who presented it as second-level thinking in his book The Most Important Thing. As he explained: “First-level thinkers look for simple formulas and easy answers. Second-level thinkers know that success in investing is the antithesis of simple.”
My Notes
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1560 days ago arun , CoFounder ModelThinkers & keynote speakerI love this. I'm trying to embed the actionable takeaway of asking 'and what would happen next' for any significant decisions.
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