0 saved
10K views
Imagine playing a game of chess where your opponent places their queen directly in the kill zone of your pawn. You'd take it, right? If so, tha ...
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Respondeat totidem verbis. Ut proverbia non nulla veriora sint quam vestra dogmata. Nam ante Aristippus, et ille melius. Nam ista vestra: Si gravis, brevis; Duo Reges: constructio interrete. Modo etiam paulum ad dexteram de via declinavi, ut ad Pericli sepulcrum accederem. Quod eo liquidius faciet, si perspexerit rerum inter eas verborumne sit controversia. Sed ad rem redeamus; Aperiendum est igitur, quid sit voluptas; At modo dixeras nihil in istis rebus esse, quod interesset.
Venit enim mihi Platonis in mentem, quem accepimus primum hic disputare solitum; Venit enim mihi Platonis in mentem, quem accepimus primum hic disputare solitum; Tu autem negas fortem esse quemquam posse, qui dolorem malum putet. Velut ego nunc moveor. Est autem etiam actio quaedam corporis, quae motus et status naturae congruentis tenet; Id quaeris, inquam, in quo, utrum respondero, verses te huc atque illuc necesse est. Ad corpus diceres pertinere-, sed ea, quae dixi, ad corpusne refers?
Non ego tecum iam ita iocabor, ut isdem his de rebus, cum L. Perturbationes autem nulla naturae vi commoventur, omniaque ea sunt opiniones ac iudicia levitatis. Illud quaero, quid ei, qui in voluptate summum bonum ponat, consentaneum sit dicere. Quis non odit sordidos, vanos, leves, futtiles? Quamquam id quidem licebit iis existimare, qui legerint. Quae cum dixisset, finem ille. Bork
- Stop and ask ‘and what would happen next?’
Rather than commit to an initial appealing decisi ...
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Pauca mutat vel plura sane; Sic enim censent, oportunitatis esse beate vivere. Quid de Platone aut de Democrito loquar? Me igitur ipsum ames oportet, non mea, si veri amici futuri sumus.
Duo Reges: constructio interrete. Negat esse eam, inquit, propter se expetendam. Num igitur eum postea censes anxio animo aut sollicito fuisse? Hoc enim identidem dicitis, non intellegere nos quam dicatis voluptatem. Ut optime, secundum naturam affectum esse possit. Quaesita enim virtus est, non quae relinqueret naturam, sed quae tueretur. Hanc ergo intuens debet institutum illud quasi signum absolvere. Quos quidem tibi studiose et diligenter tractandos magnopere censeo.
Sic enim censent, oportunitatis esse beate vivere. Tum Torquatus: Prorsus, inquit, assentior; Hoc dictum in una re latissime patet, ut in omnibus factis re, non teste moveamur. Atqui iste locus est, Piso, tibi etiam atque etiam confirmandus, inquam; Nunc omni virtuti vitium contrario nomine opponitur. Quod si ita se habeat, non possit beatam praestare vitam sapientia. Expectoque quid ad id, quod quaerebam, respondeas. Odium autem et invidiam facile vitabis. Intellegi quidem, ut propter aliam quampiam rem, verbi gratia propter voluptatem, nos amemus;
Second-Order Thinking is effortful and can ultimately be wildly unreliable. Each step away from the initial direct causal relationship — between a decision and the immediate implication — creates new factors to consider, other players and agents, and general complexity. It is difficult to predict or consider all of these factors in any meaningful way.
Automation and the fourth industrial revolution.
One of the contradictions of capitalism that is still being played out in real time around us, is the impact of automation. There is still some debate about the impact of automation on jobs. While there is general agreement that we are losing many jobs, it’s unclear how many new jobs are being created through a ‘robot driven economy’.
A first order thinking approach to automation would say ‘we can save on labour costs and be more efficient by automating’. The second order and beyond thinking might raise questions about less people in the workforce and the implications on reducing consumer power — thus costing those businesses.
Again, this is still being played out with some debate about actual implications (second order thinking is often harder to predict), but has led to growing calls for things such as a universal basic income.
Asimov and the Foundation series.
I couldn’t resist putting this geeky reference in here. Science fiction writer Asimov coined the concept of psychohistory in the Foundation series. This is the (fictional) combination of history, sociology and maths to make predictions about large groups of people. The idea was that it was hard to predict the behaviour of individuals, but the behaviour of groups of people and civilisations was highly predictable through what could be seen as a type of second order thinking.
Chess.
Chess and other strategy games capture this well. It’s often tempting to take a piece in chess, when in reality it is a play by your opponent to draw you into a trap. The immediate gain of taking a piece leads to long term consequences of weakening your position and leading you to lose the game.
Second-Order Thinking is a simple and powerful mental model to prevent reactive decisions and consider long term implications.
Use the following examples of connected and complementary models to weave Second-Order Thinking into your broader latticework of mental models. Alternatively, discover your own connections by exploring the category list above.
Connected models:
- Fast and slow thinking: first-order thinking sits within fast thinking.
- The domino effect: using second order thinking to gain momentum.
- Opportunity cost: considering the cost of the next best option.
- Compounding: how an initial decision can have a compounded effect.
- Butterfly effect: how small decisions can make large impacts over time.
- 5 whys and fishbone diagram: to dig deeper beyond initial causes.
Complementary models:
- Feedback loops: generating regular feedback points to inform the accuracy of second order thinking.
- Agile methodology: providing an iterative process to test and learn from.
- Probability thinking: to consider the likelihood of various potential outcomes.
- High velocity decisions: particularly considering whether something is reversible.
- First principles and ockham's razor: to cut down the assumptions built up over second order thinking.
- 5 whys: to consider a retrospective view of cause in contrast to the future-focused nature of second order thinking.
The Second-Order Thinking mental model has been developed by Howard Marks, the co-chairman of Oaktree investments, who presented it as second-level thinking in his book The Most Important Thing. As he explained: “First-level thinkers look for simple formulas and easy answers. Second-level thinkers know that success in investing is the antithesis of simple.”
My Notes
-
1367 days ago arun , CoFounder ModelThinkers & keynote speakerI love this. I'm trying to embed the actionable takeaway of asking 'and what would happen next' for any significant decisions.
Oops, That’s Members’ Only!
Fortunately, it only costs US$5/month to Join ModelThinkers and access everything so that you can rapidly discover, learn, and apply the world’s most powerful ideas.
ModelThinkers membership at a glance:
“Yeah, we hate pop ups too. But we wanted to let you know that, with ModelThinkers, we’re making it easier for you to adapt, innovate and create value. We hope you’ll join us and the growing community of ModelThinkers today.”
You Might Also Like:
- Actionable summaries of the world's most powerful ideas.
Subscribe now and download this practical guide to transform your thinking, plus recieve one short, powerful and actionable idea in your inbox each month.