Save to My Latticework unsave

WRAP Decision Process
WRAP Decision Process
WRAP Decision Process
save0 saved view419 views
Share this with your network
Share this with your network
Overview

In their best-selling book Decisive, Chip and Dan Heath identified ‘four villains of decision-making’, these are the common pitfalls that we fall into when making a choice. Their resulting decision-making process aims to avoid these villains and empower better decisions. 

The WRAP Decision Process includes: Widening your options to avoid narrow framing; Reality testing your assumptions to avoid the Confirmation Heuristic; Attaining distance to avoid short-term emotions; and Preparing to be wrong to avoid overconfidence. 

WHY WRAP? 

We were immediately drawn to this model because it effectively applies the Inversion approach, one of our favourite models, to decision-making. In other words, rather than obsessing about making great decisions, WRAP empowers you to avoid making bad ones. 

In arguing for their model, the Heath brothers note that people tend to overestimate the impact of analysis over the power of an effective decision-making process. They explain: “When the researchers compared whether process or analysis was more important in producing good decisions—those that increased revenues, profits, and market share—they found that “process mattered more than analysis—by a factor of six.

"Often a good process led to better analysis—for instance, by ferreting out faulty logic. But the reverse was not true: Superb analysis is useless unless the decision process gives it a fair hearing.” 

APPLYING WRAP.

We know you’re busy, so we’ve distilled the WRAP Decision Process into this quick reference table for you: 

DECISION-MAKING CHALLENGES

WRAP DECISION PROCESS

PRACTICAL TECHNIQUES

Narrow framing: 

We have a tendency to just consider two counterposed choices.

Widen the frame: 

Work to uncover new options that shift the conversation from choosing “This OR That’ to can we do “This AND That.”

  • Consider the Opportunity Cost of the choice not taken.

  • Ensure you’re asking the right question by Framestorming

  • Multitrack options by experimenting with multiple choices before committing to one.

  • Consider how others have explored the problem including ‘local’ or familiar examples that have gone well; ‘regional’ examples of best practice; and ‘distant’ or analogous examples from distant domains that can relate to your challenge.

Confirmation Heuristic:
We have a tendency to seek information that supports our beliefs and assumptions.  

Reality-test your assumptions: 

Ask questions to challenge your current assumptions and seek other perspectives.

  • Consider what would make the alternative work. Ask what would have to be true to make the option you don’t want the best choice. 

  • Ask questions to seek out counter-evidence by considering what might you see if you were wrong. 

  • Take an outside view by considering your challenge happening to someone else. You might even consider using Rolestorming

  • Base rate with expert views, by asking experts what has happened in similar situations.

  • Consider Prototyping or Split Tests to test your assumptions. 

Short-term emotions:

We are less rational than we believe and our physical and emotional state have massive impacts on decisions.  

Attain distance before deciding: 

Aim to gain a greater perspective or view of the challenge before deciding. 

  • Use the 10/10/10 Method before a decision by considering how you’d feel in 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years from now. 

  • View your challenge as though it was happening to someone else, perhaps a friend, and consider what advice you would give them. This can support the Advice Giving Effect. 

  • Use Jeff Bezos’ Regret Minimisation Framework to get in touch with what’s really important to you long term. 

Overconfidence

We tend to believe that things will turn out as we plan. 

Prepare to be wrong:
Consider negative outcomes and being wrong. 


SETTING TRIPWIRES. 

The Heath Brothers implicitly advocate Fast and Slow Thinking and acknowledge that we will generally make irrational, fast decisions left to our own devices. They, therefore, suggest setting ‘tripwires’ which are a form of Nudges to encourage us to focus on decisions more consciously at key moments. They cite the example of Zappos which offers their employees $400 to quit during their induction process, this temptation is a tripwire to force an early decision point for less motivated employees. 

IN YOUR LATTICEWORK. 

The WRAP Decision Process has connections to many other models and frameworks as you can see from the many links above. WRAP is a form of Inversion in that it avoids the worst of decision-making. In addition, when applying WRAP you can use:

Beyond those models consider applying the WRAP Process in combination with Dave Snowden’s Cynefin Framework to identify the level or nature of complexity you are facing, or as an overlay to Decision Trees

Share this model with your network to be smarter, faster, together!
Actionable Takeaways
  • Remember to slow down for key decisions. 

Behavioural economics has provided considerable evidence as to our irrationality in decision-making so ensure that you slow down when faced with a decision and apply a process such as WRAP

  • Widen the frame.

Actively Framestorm the question and uncover other options that go beyond the choice at hand. Consider whether there are any combinations or new approaches to solving your problem. 

  • Reality test your assumptions. 

Challenge your Confirmation Heuristic by asking what would you see if you were wrong and actively seeking out counter-evidence. You might also want to run experiments with Prototypes

  • Attain distance before deciding. 

Go beyond short-term emotions by asking yourself how you’d advise a friend in a similar situation, or applying Jeff Bezos’ Regret Minimisation Framework

  • Prepare to be wrong.

Apply Probabilistic Thinking to consider multiple possible futures, use Inversion and pre-mortems to and plan with Redundancy or a Margin of Error.

Explore More
WRAP Decision Process is featured in these playbooks:
Limitations

There is a growing acceptance of our innate irrationality and the Heath brother's WRAP Decision Process sets out to mitigate against some of the most impactful challenges that we all face when making decisions. That said, knowing about our irrational decision-making does not solve the problem, and perhaps the biggest challenge of this process is having the presence of mind to use it in our daily lives. The Heaths try to address this potential fail point with their 'trip wire' concept, which is essentially nudges, to slow down decisions, but it remains an issue. 

In Practice

WRAP examples.

Some of the examples that the Heath brothers cite in support of the WRAP Decision Process include: 

  • Widening the Frame: A study where two groups of graphic designers were charged to create a banner advert. One group created a single advert at a time while the other group created three versions concurrently. The second group were assessed as delivering better results. 

  • Reality test: the Heaths suggest when checking to see if you want to take a job at a firm, consider questions to challenge assumptions including asking people who work there how often they have dinner at home, are they happy, do they work nights etc..

  • Prepare to be wrong: the Heaths note that elevator cables are typically eleven times stronger than they need to be. 

Build your latticework
This model will help you to:

d

Origins & Resources

The WRAP Decision Process was created by Chip and Dan Heath and forms the basis for their book Decisive, How to Make Better Choices in Life and Work.

They explain the driver behind the model: “You encounter a choice. But narrow framing makes you miss options. You analyze your options. But the confirmation bias leads you to gather self-serving information. You make a choice. But short-term emotion will often tempt you to make the wrong one. Then you live with it. But you’ll often be overconfident about how the future will unfold.”

My Notes

    Nothing here yet. Join ModelThinkers and login to be the first to comment.
Already a ModelThinkers member? Please log in here.

Oops, That’s Members’ Only!

Fortunately, it only costs US$5/month to Join ModelThinkers and access everything so that you can rapidly discover, learn, and apply the world’s most powerful ideas.

ModelThinkers membership at a glance:

Small mark
UNLOCK EVERYTHING
Access all mental models and premium content.
Small mark
BUILD YOUR LATTICEWORK
Save models to your personal list.
Small mark
QUICKLY MEMORISE MODELS
Use our Learn function to embed models to memory
Small mark
PERSONALISE MODELS
Add your own notes and reminders.
Small mark
BUILD YOUR ‘EXTERNAL BRAIN’
Discover a new idea? Capture it by adding a new model.
Small mark
JOIN THE MT COMMUNITY
Rate models, comment and access exclusive events.

“Yeah, we hate pop ups too. But we wanted to let you know that, with ModelThinkers, we’re making it easier for you to adapt, innovate and create value. We hope you’ll join us and the growing community of ModelThinkers today.”

Arun Pradhan & Shai Desai
CoFounders, ModelThinkers.