0 saved
12.6K views
Imagine playing a game of chess where your opponent places their queen directly in the kill zone of your pawn. You'd take it, right? If so, tha ...
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Ut proverbia non nulla veriora sint quam vestra dogmata. Ea possunt paria non esse. Nec lapathi suavitatem acupenseri Galloni Laelius anteponebat, sed suavitatem ipsam neglegebat; Quid nunc honeste dicit? Mihi quidem Homerus huius modi quiddam vidisse videatur in iis, quae de Sirenum cantibus finxerit. Te ipsum, dignissimum maioribus tuis, voluptasne induxit, ut adolescentulus eriperes P. Duo Reges: constructio interrete. Quod autem satis est, eo quicquid accessit, nimium est; Utinam quidem dicerent alium alio beatiorem! Iam ruinas videres.
Nunc reliqua videamus, nisi aut ad haec, Cato, dicere aliquid vis aut nos iam longiores sumus. Haec bene dicuntur, nec ego repugno, sed inter sese ipsa pugnant. Quid enim ab antiquis ex eo genere, quod ad disserendum valet, praetermissum est? Quae cum dixisset paulumque institisset, Quid est? Quem ad modum quis ambulet, sedeat, qui ductus oris, qui vultus in quoque sit? Sin autem est in ea, quod quidam volunt, nihil impedit hanc nostram comprehensionem summi boni.
Si quidem, inquit, tollerem, sed relinquo. Pauca mutat vel plura sane; Satis est tibi in te, satis in legibus, satis in mediocribus amicitiis praesidii. Quae qui non vident, nihil umquam magnum ac cognitione dignum amaverunt. Terram, mihi crede, ea lanx et maria deprimet. Age nunc isti doceant, vel tu potius quis enim ista melius? Quod ea non occurrentia fingunt, vincunt Aristonem; Addo etiam illud, multa iam mihi dare signa puerum et pudoris et ingenii, sed aetatem vides.
- Stop and ask ‘and what would happen next?’
Rather than commit to an initial appealing decisi ...
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Ita relinquet duas, de quibus etiam atque etiam consideret. Nam Pyrrho, Aristo, Erillus iam diu abiecti. Duae sunt enim res quoque, ne tu verba solum putes. Illis videtur, qui illud non dubitant bonum dicere -; Esse enim quam vellet iniquus iustus poterat inpune. Duo Reges: constructio interrete.
Nam Pyrrho, Aristo, Erillus iam diu abiecti. Sunt enim prima elementa naturae, quibus auctis vírtutis quasi germen efficitur. Quae duo sunt, unum facit. Duarum enim vitarum nobis erunt instituta capienda. Non igitur potestis voluptate omnia dirigentes aut tueri aut retinere virtutem. Atqui eorum nihil est eius generis, ut sit in fine atque extrerno bonorum.
Id enim volumus, id contendimus, ut officii fructus sit ipsum officium. Quasi ego id curem, quid ille aiat aut neget. Quasi ego id curem, quid ille aiat aut neget. Tamen a proposito, inquam, aberramus. Sin te auctoritas commovebat, nobisne omnibus et Platoni ipsi nescio quem illum anteponebas? Qui autem de summo bono dissentit de tota philosophiae ratione dissentit.
Second-Order Thinking is effortful and can ultimately be wildly unreliable. Each step away from the initial direct causal relationship — between a decision and the immediate implication — creates new factors to consider, other players and agents, and general complexity. It is difficult to predict or consider all of these factors in any meaningful way.
Automation and the fourth industrial revolution.
One of the contradictions of capitalism that is still being played out in real time around us, is the impact of automation. There is still some debate about the impact of automation on jobs. While there is general agreement that we are losing many jobs, it’s unclear how many new jobs are being created through a ‘robot driven economy’.
A first order thinking approach to automation would say ‘we can save on labour costs and be more efficient by automating’. The second order and beyond thinking might raise questions about less people in the workforce and the implications on reducing consumer power — thus costing those businesses.
Again, this is still being played out with some debate about actual implications (second order thinking is often harder to predict), but has led to growing calls for things such as a universal basic income.
Asimov and the Foundation series.
I couldn’t resist putting this geeky reference in here. Science fiction writer Asimov coined the concept of psychohistory in the Foundation series. This is the (fictional) combination of history, sociology and maths to make predictions about large groups of people. The idea was that it was hard to predict the behaviour of individuals, but the behaviour of groups of people and civilisations was highly predictable through what could be seen as a type of second order thinking.
Chess.
Chess and other strategy games capture this well. It’s often tempting to take a piece in chess, when in reality it is a play by your opponent to draw you into a trap. The immediate gain of taking a piece leads to long term consequences of weakening your position and leading you to lose the game.
Second-Order Thinking is a simple and powerful mental model to prevent reactive decisions and consider long term implications.
Use the following examples of connected and complementary models to weave Second-Order Thinking into your broader latticework of mental models. Alternatively, discover your own connections by exploring the category list above.
Connected models:
- Fast and slow thinking: first-order thinking sits within fast thinking.
- The domino effect: using second order thinking to gain momentum.
- Opportunity cost: considering the cost of the next best option.
- Compounding: how an initial decision can have a compounded effect.
- Butterfly effect: how small decisions can make large impacts over time.
- 5 whys and fishbone diagram: to dig deeper beyond initial causes.
Complementary models:
- Feedback loops: generating regular feedback points to inform the accuracy of second order thinking.
- Agile methodology: providing an iterative process to test and learn from.
- Probability thinking: to consider the likelihood of various potential outcomes.
- High velocity decisions: particularly considering whether something is reversible.
- First principles and ockham's razor: to cut down the assumptions built up over second order thinking.
- 5 whys: to consider a retrospective view of cause in contrast to the future-focused nature of second order thinking.
The Second-Order Thinking mental model has been developed by Howard Marks, the co-chairman of Oaktree investments, who presented it as second-level thinking in his book The Most Important Thing. As he explained: “First-level thinkers look for simple formulas and easy answers. Second-level thinkers know that success in investing is the antithesis of simple.”
My Notes
-
1461 days ago arun , CoFounder ModelThinkers & keynote speakerI love this. I'm trying to embed the actionable takeaway of asking 'and what would happen next' for any significant decisions.
Oops, That’s Members’ Only!
Fortunately, it only costs US$5/month to Join ModelThinkers and access everything so that you can rapidly discover, learn, and apply the world’s most powerful ideas.
ModelThinkers membership at a glance:
“Yeah, we hate pop ups too. But we wanted to let you know that, with ModelThinkers, we’re making it easier for you to adapt, innovate and create value. We hope you’ll join us and the growing community of ModelThinkers today.”
You Might Also Like:
- Actionable summaries of the world's most powerful ideas.
Subscribe now and download this practical guide to transform your thinking, plus recieve one short, powerful and actionable idea in your inbox each month.