0 saved
12.5K views
Just in case you were becoming too accustomed to the anxiety of living in a complex world, use this model to appreciate it's real volatility.&n ...
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. At, illa, ut vobis placet, partem quandam tuetur, reliquam deserit. Sed erat aequius Triarium aliquid de dissensione nostra iudicare. Efficiens dici potest. Haec et tu ita posuisti, et verba vestra sunt. Duo Reges: constructio interrete. Apud imperitos tum illa dicta sunt, aliquid etiam coronae datum; Cum id fugiunt, re eadem defendunt, quae Peripatetici, verba. Nummus in Croesi divitiis obscuratur, pars est tamen divitiarum. Ergo et avarus erit, sed finite, et adulter, verum habebit modum, et luxuriosus eodem modo. Octavio fuit, cum illam severitatem in eo filio adhibuit, quem in adoptionem D. Pudebit te, inquam, illius tabulae, quam Cleanthes sane commode verbis depingere solebat.
Hoc mihi cum tuo fratre convenit. Sed quanta sit alias, nunc tantum possitne esse tanta. Ille enim occurrentia nescio quae comminiscebatur; Etenim semper illud extra est, quod arte comprehenditur. Non laboro, inquit, de nomine. Dempta enim aeternitate nihilo beatior Iuppiter quam Epicurus; At quicum ioca seria, ut dicitur, quicum arcana, quicum occulta omnia? Suam denique cuique naturam esse ad vivendum ducem. Sin tantum modo ad indicia veteris memoriae cognoscenda, curiosorum. Fatebuntur Stoici haec omnia dicta esse praeclare, neque eam causam Zenoni desciscendi fuisse.
Hinc ceteri particulas arripere conati suam quisque videro voluit afferre sententiam. Sed ad bona praeterita redeamus. Quod eo liquidius faciet, si perspexerit rerum inter eas verborumne sit controversia. Hanc se tuus Epicurus omnino ignorare dicit quam aut qualem esse velint qui honestate summum bonum metiantur. A primo, ut opinor, animantium ortu petitur origo summi boni. Hosne igitur laudas et hanc eorum, inquam, sententiam sequi nos censes oportere? Illud dico, ea, quae dicat, praeclare inter se cohaerere. Si alia sentit, inquam, alia loquitur, numquam intellegam quid sentiat; Quae iam oratio non a philosopho aliquo, sed a censore opprimenda est. Idque testamento cavebit is, qui nobis quasi oraculum ediderit nihil post mortem ad nos pertinere?
- Embrace unpredictability and ambiguity
The butterfly effect is another reminder that, even within system ...
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Ita ne hoc quidem modo paria peccata sunt. Duo Reges: constructio interrete. Omnia contraria, quos etiam insanos esse vultis. Piso igitur hoc modo, vir optimus tuique, ut scis, amantissimus. Solum praeterea formosum, solum liberum, solum civem, stultost; Si enim ita est, vide ne facinus facias, cum mori suadeas. Illis videtur, qui illud non dubitant bonum dicere -; Haec et tu ita posuisti, et verba vestra sunt. Ut proverbia non nulla veriora sint quam vestra dogmata.
Nam et a te perfici istam disputationem volo, nec tua mihi oratio longa videri potest. Egone quaeris, inquit, quid sentiam? Paupertas si malum est, mendicus beatus esse nemo potest, quamvis sit sapiens. Quid autem habent admirationis, cum prope accesseris?
Longum est enim ad omnia respondere, quae a te dicta sunt. Alterum significari idem, ut si diceretur, officia media omnia aut pleraque servantem vivere. Age, inquies, ista parva sunt. Non quam nostram quidem, inquit Pomponius iocans; Quid enim est a Chrysippo praetermissum in Stoicis? Ita enim vivunt quidam, ut eorum vita refellatur oratio. Heri, inquam, ludis commissis ex urbe profectus veni ad vesperum.
The Butterfly Effect tends to be misunderstood in popular culture. The idea of a butterfly flapping its wings and causing a typhoon is fascinating but has been interpreted as a linear explanation behind major events, rather than the intended emphasis towards complex and unpredictable patterns.
It should also not be interpreted as arguing that minor changes always have major impacts. Sometimes a butterfly will flap its wings and there will be no perceivable impact on a complex system. Sensitivity is in itself unpredictable.
Thus, one criticism of the Butterfly Effect might be the ‘so what?’ If we embrace the unpredictability that it argues, what can we do with that, how do we plan, how do we trust any other model, theory or prediction? However, a more balanced view would see it as a grounding warning.
A Butterfly Effect at Twitter
Twitter founder and CEO Jack Dorsey has discussed the impact of early decisions on Twitter. In a podcast interview, Dorsey explained he would have hired “a game theorist to just really understand the ramifications of tiny decisions that we make, such as what happens with retweet versus retweet with comment and what happens when you put a count next to a like button?”
He attributes that early decision and it’s implicit rewarding of liked and shared content over other metrics such as diversity, accuracy or relevance, with the ‘clickbait’ and sensationalist culture found in some parts of Twitter.
His plan for the future embraces this unpredictability — advocating a considered and iterative approach that embraces the scientific method to continually improve the product and experience.
The butterfly effect points to uncertainty and unpredictable complex systems.
Use the following examples of connected and complementary models to weave butterfly effect and chaos theory into your broader latticework of mental models. Alternatively, discover your own connections by exploring the category list above.
Connected models:
- The ripple effect, avalanche effect and domino effect: all similar mental models pointing to the exponential impact of small factors, though they don’t emphasise the unpredictable and nonlinear nature of chaos in the same way.
- The map is not the territory: another reminder that our simplified understanding of reality are in fact not reality.
- Black swan events: linked to major events taking us by surprise and how we react and want to explain them afterwards.
- Catalyst: similar mental model with a minor element promoting change at a large scale.
- Compounding: speaks to the exponential impact of a small starting point.
Complementary models:
- Diversification: in an unpredictable world best be prepared for, well, unpredictability.
- Leverage: not to be mistaken with the butterfly effect, leverage works with more controlled and predictable elements to create an amplified impact.
- 4Ps of marketing: aim to apply small improvements to these factors to test long term impact.
- Scientific method: use this method to continually test and update understanding in a complex world.
- Occam’s razor: sometimes it wasn’t the butterfly flapping, sometimes it was just a more direct and obvious causal relationship.
The Butterfly Effect concept was coined by American mathematician and meteorologist Edward Lorenz who imagined the metaphor of a tornado being determined by perturbations as minor as the flapping of the wings of a butterfly weeks earlier.
The idea of small actions having large effects had been described before by many mathematicians and philosophers, with the most famous probably being that of Johann Gottlieb Fichte who said in his 1800 work The Vocation of Man that "you could not remove a single grain of sand from its place without thereby ... changing something throughout all parts of the immeasurable whole".
My Notes
Oops, That’s Members’ Only!
Fortunately, it only costs US$5/month to Join ModelThinkers and access everything so that you can rapidly discover, learn, and apply the world’s most powerful ideas.
ModelThinkers membership at a glance:
“Yeah, we hate pop ups too. But we wanted to let you know that, with ModelThinkers, we’re making it easier for you to adapt, innovate and create value. We hope you’ll join us and the growing community of ModelThinkers today.”
You Might Also Like:
- Actionable summaries of the world's most powerful ideas.
Subscribe now and download this practical guide to transform your thinking, plus recieve one short, powerful and actionable idea in your inbox each month.