0 saved
12.4K views
Just in case you were becoming too accustomed to the anxiety of living in a complex world, use this model to appreciate it's real volatility.&n ...
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Tu enim ista lenius, hic Stoicorum more nos vexat. Age, inquies, ista parva sunt. Unum est sine dolore esse, alterum cum voluptate. Quae hic rei publicae vulnera inponebat, eadem ille sanabat. Quamquam te quidem video minime esse deterritum. Duo Reges: constructio interrete.
Quo invento omnis ab eo quasi capite de summo bono et malo disputatio ducitur. At quicum ioca seria, ut dicitur, quicum arcana, quicum occulta omnia? Atque haec ita iustitiae propria sunt, ut sint virtutum reliquarum communia. Callipho ad virtutem nihil adiunxit nisi voluptatem, Diodorus vacuitatem doloris.
Idemque diviserunt naturam hominis in animum et corpus. Quarum ambarum rerum cum medicinam pollicetur, luxuriae licentiam pollicetur. Tibi hoc incredibile, quod beatissimum. Aut unde est hoc contritum vetustate proverbium: quicum in tenebris? Utilitatis causa amicitia est quaesita. Duarum enim vitarum nobis erunt instituta capienda. Quid de Pythagora? Utinam quidem dicerent alium alio beatiorem! Iam ruinas videres.
- Embrace unpredictability and ambiguity
The butterfly effect is another reminder that, even within system ...
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Illum mallem levares, quo optimum atque humanissimum virum, Cn. Quamquam tu hanc copiosiorem etiam soles dicere. Ita fit cum gravior, tum etiam splendidior oratio. Quae cum dixisset paulumque institisset, Quid est? Duo Reges: constructio interrete. Quae qui non vident, nihil umquam magnum ac cognitione dignum amaverunt. Non enim iam stirpis bonum quaeret, sed animalis.
Quid, de quo nulla dissensio est? At eum nihili facit; Virtutis, magnitudinis animi, patientiae, fortitudinis fomentis dolor mitigari solet. An quod ita callida est, ut optime possit architectari voluptates? Octavio fuit, cum illam severitatem in eo filio adhibuit, quem in adoptionem D. Videamus igitur sententias eorum, tum ad verba redeamus.
Quid est igitur, inquit, quod requiras? Quare attende, quaeso. Quo studio cum satiari non possint, omnium ceterarum rerum obliti níhil abiectum, nihil humile cogitant; Ratio enim nostra consentit, pugnat oratio. Estne, quaeso, inquam, sitienti in bibendo voluptas? Mihi vero, inquit, placet agi subtilius et, ut ipse dixisti, pressius. Cupiditates non Epicuri divisione finiebat, sed sua satietate. Certe non potest. Idcirco enim non desideraret, quia, quod dolore caret, id in voluptate est. Itaque ad tempus ad Pisonem omnes. Quae cum magnifice primo dici viderentur, considerata minus probabantur. Sedulo, inquam, faciam.
The Butterfly Effect tends to be misunderstood in popular culture. The idea of a butterfly flapping its wings and causing a typhoon is fascinating but has been interpreted as a linear explanation behind major events, rather than the intended emphasis towards complex and unpredictable patterns.
It should also not be interpreted as arguing that minor changes always have major impacts. Sometimes a butterfly will flap its wings and there will be no perceivable impact on a complex system. Sensitivity is in itself unpredictable.
Thus, one criticism of the Butterfly Effect might be the ‘so what?’ If we embrace the unpredictability that it argues, what can we do with that, how do we plan, how do we trust any other model, theory or prediction? However, a more balanced view would see it as a grounding warning.
A Butterfly Effect at Twitter
Twitter founder and CEO Jack Dorsey has discussed the impact of early decisions on Twitter. In a podcast interview, Dorsey explained he would have hired “a game theorist to just really understand the ramifications of tiny decisions that we make, such as what happens with retweet versus retweet with comment and what happens when you put a count next to a like button?”
He attributes that early decision and it’s implicit rewarding of liked and shared content over other metrics such as diversity, accuracy or relevance, with the ‘clickbait’ and sensationalist culture found in some parts of Twitter.
His plan for the future embraces this unpredictability — advocating a considered and iterative approach that embraces the scientific method to continually improve the product and experience.
The butterfly effect points to uncertainty and unpredictable complex systems.
Use the following examples of connected and complementary models to weave butterfly effect and chaos theory into your broader latticework of mental models. Alternatively, discover your own connections by exploring the category list above.
Connected models:
- The ripple effect, avalanche effect and domino effect: all similar mental models pointing to the exponential impact of small factors, though they don’t emphasise the unpredictable and nonlinear nature of chaos in the same way.
- The map is not the territory: another reminder that our simplified understanding of reality are in fact not reality.
- Black swan events: linked to major events taking us by surprise and how we react and want to explain them afterwards.
- Catalyst: similar mental model with a minor element promoting change at a large scale.
- Compounding: speaks to the exponential impact of a small starting point.
Complementary models:
- Diversification: in an unpredictable world best be prepared for, well, unpredictability.
- Leverage: not to be mistaken with the butterfly effect, leverage works with more controlled and predictable elements to create an amplified impact.
- 4Ps of marketing: aim to apply small improvements to these factors to test long term impact.
- Scientific method: use this method to continually test and update understanding in a complex world.
- Occam’s razor: sometimes it wasn’t the butterfly flapping, sometimes it was just a more direct and obvious causal relationship.
The Butterfly Effect concept was coined by American mathematician and meteorologist Edward Lorenz who imagined the metaphor of a tornado being determined by perturbations as minor as the flapping of the wings of a butterfly weeks earlier.
The idea of small actions having large effects had been described before by many mathematicians and philosophers, with the most famous probably being that of Johann Gottlieb Fichte who said in his 1800 work The Vocation of Man that "you could not remove a single grain of sand from its place without thereby ... changing something throughout all parts of the immeasurable whole".
My Notes
Oops, That’s Members’ Only!
Fortunately, it only costs US$5/month to Join ModelThinkers and access everything so that you can rapidly discover, learn, and apply the world’s most powerful ideas.
ModelThinkers membership at a glance:
“Yeah, we hate pop ups too. But we wanted to let you know that, with ModelThinkers, we’re making it easier for you to adapt, innovate and create value. We hope you’ll join us and the growing community of ModelThinkers today.”
You Might Also Like:
- Actionable summaries of the world's most powerful ideas.
Subscribe now and download this practical guide to transform your thinking, plus recieve one short, powerful and actionable idea in your inbox each month.