0 saved
10K views
Imagine playing a game of chess where your opponent places their queen directly in the kill zone of your pawn. You'd take it, right? If so, tha ...
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Primum cur ista res digna odio est, nisi quod est turpis? Tum ille: Tu autem cum ipse tantum librorum habeas, quos hic tandem requiris? Parvi enim primo ortu sic iacent, tamquam omnino sine animo sint. Nam et a te perfici istam disputationem volo, nec tua mihi oratio longa videri potest. In qua quid est boni praeter summam voluptatem, et eam sempiternam?
Cuius quidem, quoniam Stoicus fuit, sententia condemnata mihi videtur esse inanitas ista verborum. Tu autem inter haec tantam multitudinem hominum interiectam non vides nec laetantium nec dolentium?
Bork Duo Reges: constructio interrete. Frater et T. Neque enim civitas in seditione beata esse potest nec in discordia dominorum domus; Ut aliquid scire se gaudeant?
- Stop and ask ‘and what would happen next?’
Rather than commit to an initial appealing decisi ...
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Et quod est munus, quod opus sapientiae? Hoc etsi multimodis reprehendi potest, tamen accipio, quod dant. Materiam vero rerum et copiam apud hos exilem, apud illos uberrimam reperiemus. Quoniam, si dis placet, ab Epicuro loqui discimus. Sed quid attinet de rebus tam apertis plura requirere? Aut unde est hoc contritum vetustate proverbium: quicum in tenebris? An me, inquam, nisi te audire vellem, censes haec dicturum fuisse? Duo Reges: constructio interrete.
Mihi enim satis est, ipsis non satis. Nummus in Croesi divitiis obscuratur, pars est tamen divitiarum. Quamquam tu hanc copiosiorem etiam soles dicere. Primum in nostrane potestate est, quid meminerimus? Illum mallem levares, quo optimum atque humanissimum virum, Cn. Sed tamen intellego quid velit. Sed quid sentiat, non videtis. Quid turpius quam sapientis vitam ex insipientium sermone pendere? Ergo in gubernando nihil, in officio plurimum interest, quo in genere peccetur. Eadem nunc mea adversum te oratio est.
Hoc dixerit potius Ennius: Nimium boni est, cui nihil est mali. Quamquam tu hanc copiosiorem etiam soles dicere. Non enim, si omnia non sequebatur, idcirco non erat ortus illinc. Themistocles quidem, cum ei Simonides an quis alius artem memoriae polliceretur, Oblivionis, inquit, mallem. Indicant pueri, in quibus ut in speculis natura cernitur. Atqui iste locus est, Piso, tibi etiam atque etiam confirmandus, inquam;
Second-Order Thinking is effortful and can ultimately be wildly unreliable. Each step away from the initial direct causal relationship — between a decision and the immediate implication — creates new factors to consider, other players and agents, and general complexity. It is difficult to predict or consider all of these factors in any meaningful way.
Automation and the fourth industrial revolution.
One of the contradictions of capitalism that is still being played out in real time around us, is the impact of automation. There is still some debate about the impact of automation on jobs. While there is general agreement that we are losing many jobs, it’s unclear how many new jobs are being created through a ‘robot driven economy’.
A first order thinking approach to automation would say ‘we can save on labour costs and be more efficient by automating’. The second order and beyond thinking might raise questions about less people in the workforce and the implications on reducing consumer power — thus costing those businesses.
Again, this is still being played out with some debate about actual implications (second order thinking is often harder to predict), but has led to growing calls for things such as a universal basic income.
Asimov and the Foundation series.
I couldn’t resist putting this geeky reference in here. Science fiction writer Asimov coined the concept of psychohistory in the Foundation series. This is the (fictional) combination of history, sociology and maths to make predictions about large groups of people. The idea was that it was hard to predict the behaviour of individuals, but the behaviour of groups of people and civilisations was highly predictable through what could be seen as a type of second order thinking.
Chess.
Chess and other strategy games capture this well. It’s often tempting to take a piece in chess, when in reality it is a play by your opponent to draw you into a trap. The immediate gain of taking a piece leads to long term consequences of weakening your position and leading you to lose the game.
Second-Order Thinking is a simple and powerful mental model to prevent reactive decisions and consider long term implications.
Use the following examples of connected and complementary models to weave Second-Order Thinking into your broader latticework of mental models. Alternatively, discover your own connections by exploring the category list above.
Connected models:
- Fast and slow thinking: first-order thinking sits within fast thinking.
- The domino effect: using second order thinking to gain momentum.
- Opportunity cost: considering the cost of the next best option.
- Compounding: how an initial decision can have a compounded effect.
- Butterfly effect: how small decisions can make large impacts over time.
- 5 whys and fishbone diagram: to dig deeper beyond initial causes.
Complementary models:
- Feedback loops: generating regular feedback points to inform the accuracy of second order thinking.
- Agile methodology: providing an iterative process to test and learn from.
- Probability thinking: to consider the likelihood of various potential outcomes.
- High velocity decisions: particularly considering whether something is reversible.
- First principles and ockham's razor: to cut down the assumptions built up over second order thinking.
- 5 whys: to consider a retrospective view of cause in contrast to the future-focused nature of second order thinking.
The Second-Order Thinking mental model has been developed by Howard Marks, the co-chairman of Oaktree investments, who presented it as second-level thinking in his book The Most Important Thing. As he explained: “First-level thinkers look for simple formulas and easy answers. Second-level thinkers know that success in investing is the antithesis of simple.”
My Notes
-
1367 days ago arun , CoFounder ModelThinkers & keynote speakerI love this. I'm trying to embed the actionable takeaway of asking 'and what would happen next' for any significant decisions.
Oops, That’s Members’ Only!
Fortunately, it only costs US$5/month to Join ModelThinkers and access everything so that you can rapidly discover, learn, and apply the world’s most powerful ideas.
ModelThinkers membership at a glance:
“Yeah, we hate pop ups too. But we wanted to let you know that, with ModelThinkers, we’re making it easier for you to adapt, innovate and create value. We hope you’ll join us and the growing community of ModelThinkers today.”
You Might Also Like:
- Actionable summaries of the world's most powerful ideas.
Subscribe now and download this practical guide to transform your thinking, plus recieve one short, powerful and actionable idea in your inbox each month.