Imagine playing a game of chess where your opponent places their queen directly in the kill zone of your pawn. You'd take it, right? If so, tha ...
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Cur tantas regiones barbarorum pedibus obiit, tot maria transmisit? Habent enim et bene longam et satis litigiosam disputationem. Sit hoc ultimum bonorum, quod nunc a me defenditur; Idque testamento cavebit is, qui nobis quasi oraculum ediderit nihil post mortem ad nos pertinere? Duo Reges: constructio interrete. Tu vero, inquam, ducas licet, si sequetur; Sit enim idem caecus, debilis. Si longus, levis dictata sunt.
Bork Quo igitur, inquit, modo? Indicant pueri, in quibus ut in speculis natura cernitur. Sed tamen omne, quod de re bona dilucide dicitur, mihi praeclare dici videtur. His similes sunt omnes, qui virtuti student levantur vitiis, levantur erroribus, nisi forte censes Ti. Traditur, inquit, ab Epicuro ratio neglegendi doloris. Quae quo sunt excelsiores, eo dant clariora indicia naturae. Paupertas si malum est, mendicus beatus esse nemo potest, quamvis sit sapiens. At miser, si in flagitiosa et vitiosa vita afflueret voluptatibus. Quid ergo hoc loco intellegit honestum?
Negat esse eam, inquit, propter se expetendam. Primum in nostrane potestate est, quid meminerimus? Stulti autem malorum memoria torquentur, sapientes bona praeterita grata recordatione renovata delectant. Cur id non ita fit? Aliter enim explicari, quod quaeritur, non potest. Nec vero alia sunt quaerenda contra Carneadeam illam sententiam. Non potes, nisi retexueris illa. Scaevola tribunus plebis ferret ad plebem vellentne de ea re quaeri.
- Stop and ask ‘and what would happen next?’
Rather than commit to an initial appealing decisi ...
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Satisne vobis videor pro meo iure in vestris auribus commentatus? Nihilo magis. Bona autem corporis huic sunt, quod posterius posui, similiora. Duo Reges: constructio interrete. Expressa vero in iis aetatibus, quae iam confirmatae sunt. Totum autem id externum est, et quod externum, id in casu est. Hos contra singulos dici est melius. Audax negotium, dicerem impudens, nisi hoc institutum postea translatum ad philosophos nostros esset. Potius ergo illa dicantur: turpe esse, viri non esse debilitari dolore, frangi, succumbere. Negat esse eam, inquit, propter se expetendam.
Transfer idem ad modestiam vel temperantiam, quae est moderatio cupiditatum rationi oboediens. Et adhuc quidem ita nobis progresso ratio est, ut ea duceretur omnis a prima commendatione naturae.
Quam ob rem tandem, inquit, non satisfacit? Gracchum patrem non beatiorem fuisse quam fillum, cum alter stabilire rem publicam studuerit, alter evertere. Sed nunc, quod agimus; At iam decimum annum in spelunca iacet. Quod ea non occurrentia fingunt, vincunt Aristonem; Quis Pullum Numitorium Fregellanum, proditorem, quamquam rei publicae nostrae profuit, non odit?
Second-Order Thinking is effortful and can ultimately be wildly unreliable. Each step away from the initial direct causal relationship — between a decision and the immediate implication — creates new factors to consider, other players and agents, and general complexity. It is difficult to predict or consider all of these factors in any meaningful way.
Automation and the fourth industrial revolution.
One of the contradictions of capitalism that is still being played out in real time around us, is the impact of automation. There is still some debate about the impact of automation on jobs. While there is general agreement that we are losing many jobs, it’s unclear how many new jobs are being created through a ‘robot driven economy’.
A first order thinking approach to automation would say ‘we can save on labour costs and be more efficient by automating’. The second order and beyond thinking might raise questions about less people in the workforce and the implications on reducing consumer power — thus costing those businesses.
Again, this is still being played out with some debate about actual implications (second order thinking is often harder to predict), but has led to growing calls for things such as a universal basic income.
Asimov and the Foundation series.
I couldn’t resist putting this geeky reference in here. Science fiction writer Asimov coined the concept of psychohistory in the Foundation series. This is the (fictional) combination of history, sociology and maths to make predictions about large groups of people. The idea was that it was hard to predict the behaviour of individuals, but the behaviour of groups of people and civilisations was highly predictable through what could be seen as a type of second order thinking.
Chess.
Chess and other strategy games capture this well. It’s often tempting to take a piece in chess, when in reality it is a play by your opponent to draw you into a trap. The immediate gain of taking a piece leads to long term consequences of weakening your position and leading you to lose the game.
Second-Order Thinking is a simple and powerful mental model to prevent reactive decisions and consider long term implications.
Use the following examples of connected and complementary models to weave Second-Order Thinking into your broader latticework of mental models. Alternatively, discover your own connections by exploring the category list above.
Connected models:
- Fast and slow thinking: first-order thinking sits within fast thinking.
- The domino effect: using second order thinking to gain momentum.
- Opportunity cost: considering the cost of the next best option.
- Compounding: how an initial decision can have a compounded effect.
- Butterfly effect: how small decisions can make large impacts over time.
- 5 whys and fishbone diagram: to dig deeper beyond initial causes.
Complementary models:
- Feedback loops: generating regular feedback points to inform the accuracy of second order thinking.
- Agile methodology: providing an iterative process to test and learn from.
- Probability thinking: to consider the likelihood of various potential outcomes.
- High velocity decisions: particularly considering whether something is reversible.
- First principles and ockham's razor: to cut down the assumptions built up over second order thinking.
- 5 whys: to consider a retrospective view of cause in contrast to the future-focused nature of second order thinking.
The Second-Order Thinking mental model has been developed by Howard Marks, the co-chairman of Oaktree investments, who presented it as second-level thinking in his book The Most Important Thing. As he explained: “First-level thinkers look for simple formulas and easy answers. Second-level thinkers know that success in investing is the antithesis of simple.”
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1466 days ago arun , CoFounder ModelThinkers & keynote speakerI love this. I'm trying to embed the actionable takeaway of asking 'and what would happen next' for any significant decisions.
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